I wrote Prime Minister Corbyn, A Strategic Masterclass 18 months ago before Brexit, before May before Trump … and it is, in my mind highly prescient.
All my UK friends look at the polls and see the Tories are nailed on to win the forthcoming election. Here’s my 12 supplementary thoughts.
1. Don’t be so sure of the polls, as being in the USA for the past year Polls are national. Votes are local and not distributed equally.
2. Miliband was a disaster, electorally, motivating neither the left or right of the Labour Party. The Left IS highly motivated and alienated non-voters MAY return to Labour. Where will the working class UKIP vote go?
3. Theresa May is not David Cameron, who was a great communicator and an electoral asset. May, for now, is neither and there is little evidence that she will flip to being a charismatic campaigner for the media age.
4. There are very good Labour MPs (that want to part of a Labour Party, just not ‘this’ Labour Party) that will command a personal vote and hold key constituencies. There will not be a Labour collapse.
5. There are 29 Tories under Criminal Investigation- ‘All politics is local.’ said Tip O’Neill.
6. The Liberal Democrats will not face the same wipeout – and in my view will take votes from pro-European Tories as well as metropolitan Labour. There will be an Anti-Tory tactical vote in many areas.
7. The SNP may form a coalition with Labour, making a majority easier, post election.
9. In 1983 there was an SDP taking votes from the centre Left. These centre left voters have 2 choices. Hold your nose and vote Tory or hold your nose and vote Labour. How will this split on election day?
10. Six weeks is a long time in politics. Who knows what the USA/China/ Korea/Iran/Syria/France foreign policies will look like when the UK votes this summer.
11. Brexit is the biggest public event since WW2. Churchill is the greatest ever Briton. Churchill lost 1945 to a “sheep in sheep’s clothing” promising a radical left agenda.
12. Trump had 1 national newspaper endorsement and was a figure of media ridicule. He is The President of the USA.
It ain’t over, ’till it’s over.